Further Analysis of Key Elements; Prospects for Change

 
On my second to last day in Palestine I am in East Jerusalem. Besides shopping for something my Arabic teacher wanted, and buying cookies from my cookie vendor, Khalil, who always greets me with the latest news and his assessment of U.S. and Israeli behavior, and getting a pound of Arabic coffee to bring home, I met with Mohammed B.

Mohammed is a Palestinian tour guide who can get in and out of Jerusalem and Israel because he has a Jerusalem ID. I met him 5 years ago when he guided a tour I was on, and he was so good that I sought him out for the two times I brought a group from the U.S. He agreed to meet with me for tea so I could pick his brain about what is going on here. I was not disappointed. In one hour we covered Jewish encroachment on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Egypt's role vis-a-vis Gaza and Israel, the international community's response to Gaza, majority grassroots aspirations, and U.S./Israel long-range plans for the Middle East.

I learned that on Wednesday, Oct. 30, the U.N. Security Council discussed (didn't vote on) the issue of Israel's settlement building. (Did this make the news in the U.S.?) All the members, including the United States, agreed that Israel should stop building settlements, especially in East Jerusalem neighborhoods, and should not change the status quo arrangements regarding who can access the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. Mohammed says this sends a strong message to Israel, as do the votes by Sweden and Great Britain to recognize the State of Palestine. Finally the international community is waking up and focusing attention on solving "the conflict". The votes in Sweden and Britain were most likely a reaction to Gaza.

Mohammed clarified for me what is meant by recognizing the State of Palestine, which in reality doesn't exist. He said it means endorsing what the majority of Palestinians still want: a two-state solution using the 1967 borders with land swaps, and eliminating the settlements from the West Bank and East Jerusalem. He explained that the West Bank borders would shrink in some places to allow Israel to incorporate large settlement blocks and would expand in other places to envelope Israel's Palestinian cities. Mohammed pulled out his map to show me what he was talking about. After the boundaries have been set and the occupation is over, Palestine will negotiate with Israel how to implement the Right of Return. It will not be abandoned, but a sovereign state will decide what is acceptable, e.g. the return of refugees might be into the West Bank and East Jerusalem, but not to Israel.

I wrote before about the tension around allowing Jews access to the Al Aqsa. It seems Israel floated a trial balloon to see how the public would react to a step towards full access. First came the angry response by the King of Jordan, threatening to re-evaluate its entire relationship with Israel, including their peace treaty. This is not an outcome Israel wants. Second, Israel was surprised to see how strongly Palestinians felt, especially the young men who are the ones most often denied access to the Mosque. Even Mohammed was surprised (and pleased) to see that the youth had not given up their spirit of resistance. Israel backed down, and Mohammed thinks they will no longer allow right wing settlers to the Al-Aqsa compound to upset the status quo.

Egypt's President Sisi made remarks at the U.N. that were quickly dropped from the news. He implied that Israel bore responsibility for the unrest in Egypt's Sinai. Such criticism from an ally is of grave concern to Israel. Meanwhile, Egypt keeps the border crossing to Gaza closed in order to control the Muslim Brotherhood, which has sought refuge in Gaza. However, this might change under the ceasefire agreement being negotiated between Hamas in Gaza, Fateh in the West Bank and Egypt. If the Palestinian Authority under Abbas is granted control over Gaza's borders, Egypt can relax, because Abbas will not tolerate the Muslim Brotherhood either.

Finally, Mohammed painted a picture encompassing the whole Middle East and what the U.S. and Israel are trying to bring about. They are trying to destroy all the Arab armies, starting with Iraq and including Syria and Egypt. This will leave Israel as the only military power in the region. This strategy explains the desire to topple President Asad in Syria. Once he is gone, the rebels will fight among themselves, which will be chaotic and bloody, but won't threaten Israel.

It remains to be seen if Mohammed's analyses and predictions are correct, but his perspective makes sense to me, and helps me to grasp some of the complexity of events in this tortured land.